moextispicy | CFUW 136 - Klavier & Lincoln

Sure, no problem. Um— Klavier isn't able to see your posts, though.

That's strange, he's showing as on on my filters. Unless I'm getting his username wrong and it's not rockjection. Give me a bit, and hopefully I'll figure it out.

Thanks. I'll ask him and see if it's working for him. I know he's been in and out, so it's a little tricky.

Anyway, I'm pretty sure Lambdadelta has already told you what page we're on?

I took him off and put him back on separately, so hopefully that worked. If it doesn't, please let me know.

Mostly I just know you were talking with Crow too, nipa~ I assume that means you were of similar opinions, but I wanted to doublecheck that.

It did! Thanks again.

It's Boyue-Satoshi and Tiffany-Nita. Part of me really, really wants to see what kind of private post they have going right now because those have to be hard to fake.

[giggles] I was thinking the same thing. Do you have any worries about getting them out?

As long as Adam's on the same page as the rest of us? Not really. We know one out of the four of us — probably Lambdadelta and Tatsuya — will get eaten, but as long as we stick together, then it's fine.

Good, nipa~

Oh, quick question because I wanted to doublecheck that Lambda was sharing information properly on the very off-chance I'm wrong about her: She did link you the first post with the voting information about 10 minutes before this one, right?

Yeah, we've got it. Thanks for that — it helps.

Nita opened a post up to us, by the way. There's nothing special at the moment, but if anything comes up, we'll let you know.

Thank you. I think I'm going to head to bed for the night since everything seems so well in hand, nipa~

Sleep well.

— just as a note, I've got a prior commitment during the afternoon and evening tomorrow. I should be around right at the ousting for about half an hour so I can vote and Klavier's going to be in and out, I think, but if anything changes drastically, I'll be checking my e-mail.

I'll be sure to email you if anything's going drastically wrong, then. Have a nice evening, nipa~

Quick request for either of you - Talk to Adam, would you? I opened up a post to him, but he only responded twice, and he's talking to Tiffany too. He's the sheep we need to convince if we're not going to take a fifty-fifty chance this round.

Edited 2012-02-13 15:44 (UTC)

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skepticalities - 2012-02-13 15:48 (UTC) - Expand

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moextispicy - 2012-02-13 15:53 (UTC) - Expand

I'm able to view the post now. I apologize for the trouble.

It's fine, nipa~ I think there might be an issue with editing two separate filters at once, so it's probably my fault for being lazy about it.

Quick request for either of you - Talk to Adam, would you? I opened up a post to him, but he only responded twice, and he's talking to Tiffany too. He's the sheep we need to convince if we're not going to take a fifty-fifty chance this round.

Understood. My mentor has set up a post already. I will share as much helpful information as I can.

Thank you. I'm writing out the game logic too, so we'll see. For your reference, and if you want to critique it:

There are two potential wolves we could have gotten: Takeru & Joe or Sanosuke & Laguna. Let's follow the scenarios.

If Takeru and Joe:
Adam: Voted in both times. Probably wolf.
Lambda: Voted out both times. Probably sheep.
Lincoln & Klavier: Voted out both times. Probably sheep.
Rika: Obviously sheep, since I'm in the same clue.
Boyue & Satoshi: Obviously sheep, since they're in the same clue.
Tiffany & Nita: Voted in when they voted. Probably wolves.
Wolves T&J: Takeru & Joe, Adam, and Tiffany & Nita.

If Sanosuke & Laguna:
Adam: Obviously sheep, since they're in the same clue.
Lambda: Either, but leaning sheep. She voted for someone else when they had more , and was
Lincoln & Klavier: Obviously sheep, because they're in the same clue as them.
Rika: Didn't vote. Could be either.
Boyue & Satoshi: Second to last ones to vote in ousting. Late votes in these kind of wolf dog piles are really really suspicious to me, and Sanosuke & Laguna's vote was the key to them not going up in the first round. Probably wolves.
Tiffany & Nita: Last ones to vote in ousting, and didn't vote in suspicion. Probably wolves who didn't want to vote their buddy out, and in suspicion, didn't want to make themselves look more suspicious by voting.
Wolves S&L: Sanosuke & Laguna, Satoshi & Boyue, Tiffany & Nita.

If you look at Tiffany and Nita in light of assuming that Sanosuke & Laguna are wolves, you get the rather interesting result that they failed to vote in the first suspicion round when Boyue & Satoshi are up. I can't say I've played with Nita before, but I have played with Tiffany, and as a sheep she really prefers to even up the vote. The fact that she didn't had me suspecting her from the very first round, especially with the way she was voting only when it didn't really matter.

The other reasons I've been figuring Wolves S&L is, well, their arguments have been making no sense. This is the one that particularly struck me as wolves trying to derail the sheep - eating people who play a lot is the most basic wolf tactic - it didn't need multiple conversations about it. I was more convinced of Boyue & Satoshi than I was Sanosuke & Laguna the second round, honestly.

Tiffany and Nita are trickier, just because they haven't been voting much, and their conversation was kept on innocuousness the entire time. I was leaning towards them anyway, but I've played with Tiffany. She's usually not this obtuse. If she's playing that dumb, there's a reason. Nita's playing better, but she suspects the one team who is least likely to be wolves by my vote counts.

Lambda, on the other hand, has been much more consistent. She voted to protect me in the first round, voted for the person who was by my lights second most suspicious in the second suspicion round, but was pretty clear that she didn't really suspect him and voted on the one who was most suspicious promptly. It could have been a coverup, but her actions are still less suspicious then Tiffany and Nita's. She derailed into one mistake, but in general her derailings have been much less potentially harmful than Tiffany and Nita's and Boyue and Satoshi's? If I listened to them, we'd still be completely lost. They aren't willing to have an opinion on whether it's the second or first round, make any logical conclusions out of that, and they were basically throwing chaos into the last round with the post opening and accusations of bullying the wolves into voting with sheep and what all. For the record, the people Crow was speaking to were: me, Lambda & Tatsuya, and Lincoln & Klavier.

After thinking about it for quite some time, I have realized that Satoshi had started acting strangely the moment the game began. Perhaps they were not really around during the time Takeru wanted to question them, but their lack of response could have been intentional as well. I believe we are allowed to voluntarily withhold information, and if they had a feeling that they were going to be up for ousting together with Takeru's team, then they could have planned that from the very beginning. "We're going to be up against them! Let's lay low so they'll look more suspicious!" and their laying low might have been a reason as to why they were not voted out. That is to say, I am completely disregarding the fact that Takeru's team may have been wolves. For the purpose of my reasoning, they are regarded as sheep.

The second day came, and Laguna and Sanosuke became clumsier. Satoshi and Boyue began slipping as well. In my thread with Satoshi after the clues were given, it did seem like I was coming off as suspicious to anyone who read it. But after reading it again, it did seem like he was trying to. . . sort of get input as to what to do next. As a wolf, he does not want to seem to predictable because then, he would get ousted easily. If the wolves knew what the sheep thought of what had just happened, they could plan better and seem more inconspicuous. Hence the reason why he had been asking those others who were mentioned in the clue their thoughts on Accelerator being eaten. Still, between Laguna's team and Satoshi's, the former came off as more "wolfy" to me.

During the third day though, with a wolf having been ousted, Satoshi and Boyue seemed to act worse than Laguna and Sanosuke did. They were all over the place with their ideas, and were very inconsistent and fickle with their "decisions". They were trying to blame this particular pair, and then move onto another pair and defending the former pair that they were trying to blame. They were obviously trying to confuse the sheep, but their plan seemed to backfire. If their plan worked, then we would not have ideas like these now.

As for Lambdadelta, I have only played with her once, and that was during my first game. You were there. She happened to be a wolf. I had suspected her already, two days into the game, mostly because of her aggressive remarks and such. Now, though, she just seems to be playing the game and not protecting her game. I do not know much about Tatsuya, though he does not seem to be around much, so it does not really matter at the moment. Among the pair, Lambdadelta is around more and you could see from her actions that she does not seem to be a wolf.

Lincoln and I will be voting on Tiffany and Nita tonight. He mentioned that it would be wise to have one sheep and one wolf up for ousting, to not get the votes between two wolves split. Though, I suppose you know how that sort of tactic goes already.

I agree with everything that you said. I'm not always good at telling when Lambda's a wolf or not, but everything about the way she's playing is still looking sheeplike to me, and Satoshi and Boyue are just... I can't imagine them not being a wolf team, the way they're playing.

I agree that we should go for the third clue, rather than trying to put both teams up at once. My feeling is that that would either really help or really backfire, and I don't think we're doing so badly we need to take any excess risk for potential gain.

Then, with this, it would mean that the teams that we are trying to get up for ousting are:
- Nita and Tiffany
- Lambdadelta and Tatsuya
And everything else that I will mention from hereon is part of a scenario which I came up with.

I suspect that Satoshi and Boyue would vote on Nita and Tiffany to make them seem like sheep. Lambdadelta would not definitely vote on her team, so if she agrees to go for the third clue, then her team's vote would go to Nita and Tiffany as well. Nita and Tiffany may not vote again, but the possibility is quite slim now. Their vote may go to Lambdadelta and Tatsuya, if they decide to go for the third clue. Following this line of thought, the only ones without a vote is you, Adam, and Lincoln and I.

- Nita and Tiffany: 2 votes
- Lambdadelta and Tatsuya: 1 vote

As mentioned, we will be voting on Nita and Tiffany tonight, which ups their votes to three. However, if you were to vote Lambdadelta and Tatsuya out, it may seem suspicious for someone who has played the game many times with you and Lambdadelta. I do not know how long Nita has been in the game, but seeing as you do not know how she plays, she may not know how you play as well. Voting on Lambdadelta and Tatsuya should work, if that was the case. If you do agree to this scenario, then both teams which we are targeting for the ousting poll will have three votes each. I believe Adam's vote would not necessarily do any damage if that were the case.

However, there are other scenarios wherein one of the two wolf teams do not wish to use the third clue for their vote. I could only see Satoshi and Boyue do that, and in which case, I suspect they would vote on Lincoln and myself. I do think that that vote would be useless though, and would just be a stray number that would not be used for reference at all. It seems like all of us, save Adam as we do not know his opinions regarding the game yet, are on the same page. There should not be anything to worry about.

I'm not sure Boyue and Satoshi will vote on Tiffany and Nita. They told me they didn't suspect her last night, and they in general haven't been playing well enough that I suspect them to go through that level of deception.

[shrugs] Overall, I'm less worried about the suspicion than the ousting, though. It doesn't matter what the vote totals are for the suspicion vote. If Adam votes for Lambda and Tatsuya in the ousting, he'll tie up the vote so that we have a fifty fifty chance of losing.

Out of curiosity, if you're around (and if you're not, that's fine), what's Tiffany's arguments for you? I got:

Lambda's a wolf if Takeru's a sheep.

Lambda- okay I didn't follow this at all. Crow's private post somehow turns into voting late in Sanosuke's round being suspicious which they admit makes them look suspicious? Probably as close as she's coming to admitting that she's a wolf if Sanosuke and Laguna are.

Of the first clue, I'm more suspicious than Satoshi because I wasn't around for second round, though he of course has made some changes and isn't clear.

Of the third clue, you guys are slightly more suspicious than Adam, slightly. But of course she's not sure.

My gut feeling from this is that she's trying to set me up as the wolf, but I'd like confirmation from one of the other people she's talking to.

The post with them wasn't really going anywhere. I mean, we had a couple comments, they responded well after I went to sleep, and then Klavier picked it up and nothing's happened since. They wanted to talk, but didn't really say about what? Klavier had to prompt them for that, and no one's responded since. Adam hasn't touched the post I put up this morning and given how slowly they were responding to us yesterday, I . . . wouldn't be too concerned about Tiffany and Nita with Adam?

I'll do my best to speak with him and I know Klavier will get to it as well when he wakes up, but you've probably got the best shot out of all of us of convincing him tonight.

That makes more sense, actually. They seem to be allergic to making concrete accusations. Thank you! I'm just nervous since Adam hasn't responded yet.