CFUW 130 - Hanna

[moextispicy]

Mi- So you're definitely a sheep.

Comments

[moextispicy]

Mi-

I don't want to add to your sorrow, but the faster we get this game over, the more people will survive.

[crisscrossing]

...

Out of the three of you, Jack seems like the obvious wolf, but that might be too easy.

[moextispicy]

I know. I already suspected that David was a sheep because he was accusing me, but that leaves me as the obvious suspect if you don't think Jack did it.

[crisscrossing]

I know, but--fff. I'm not voting for you. I can't, that's messed up beyond reason.

[moextispicy]

Mi-

[torn between wistfulness and disbelief]

[crisscrossing]

If he made you a wolf, I swear to god.

[moextispicy]

I can promise I'm not. But we'll have to wait until the end before you can know for sure whether that promise has any worth.

[crisscrossing]

It... that doesn't matter, it's fine.

[moextispicy]

If you say so.

Mi- Are you the other person voting for Jack?

[crisscrossing]

I didn't vote yet.

[moextispicy]

Mi- I wonder who then. Oh well.

[crisscrossing]

David, maybe?

[moextispicy]

Mi- Probably, considering.

[moextispicy]

Just in case I get eaten tonight, I want to leave this message with at least one safe sheep.

Jack says that it would be stupid for a wolf to vote on another, and doesn't seem to realize that it's equally suspicious for all the votes to pile up on someone like that that early, since wolves are the only ones who can move as a block early in the game. This means several things to me, as I am assuming that Jack is the wolf:
1. Tendou was the wolf, and the vote pile-up was an attempt to protect him by wolves who didn't think it through. It's what I was assuming anyway, but this moves it to near certainty for me.
2. The remaining wolf is probably equally inexperienced, if they didn't notice the potential problems with too many people voting for someone early on, and therefore the remaining wolf is likely to be among the people who haven't played much before.
3. If the wolves voted for Conrad because they didn't want to throw a wolf to the sheep the first night, that means they're highly likely to be among the people voting for Conrad, the first night. They are: Raphael (confirmed sheep), Elena (confirmed sheep), Ankh, Accelerator, Ash, and Jack (wolf, in my opinion).

This means that the three people who are most likely to be wolves are Accelerator, Ash, and Ankh. I would eliminate Accelerator as an option, because I believe he's played a fair amount before. I believe Ash plays fairly regularly, too, although I'm not as certain, and I don't remember seeing Ankh around. This means that the remaining wolf is most likely Ankh, with Ash as the second most likely possibility and Accelerator not impossible.

So basically, of the people left in the game, I list these in order of likelihood of their being a wolf:

00 - Hanna, Shura
1 - David
2 - Accelerator
3 - Ash
4 - Ankh
5 - Jack

[crisscrossing]

... Whoa! Err. I don't know about David. But I'm with you on the rest. Th-thanks.

[moextispicy]

Mi- After the thing with his boyfriend going off to confront Hatter, I'm more doubtful too. But I'd rather go with Jack at the moment, since I was already inclining that way.

Do you have any other reason you'd doubt David?

[crisscrossing]

No? He seems honest.

[moextispicy]

Mi- Too bad, too bad.

I'm asking what he knows about what happened there. I'll let you know what he says if you would like?

[crisscrossing]

That'd be great, thanks.

[moextispicy]

moextispicy
2011-08-29 01:54 am UTC
But it would also create a weakness in her game. Mi- I suppose there's no way to tell.

Speaking of the Shepherd's motivations, can I ask what you know about your boyfriend when he went off to confront Hatter?

watchmycannon
2011-08-29 01:58 am UTC
I believe-- I believe Raphael was worried about both Itachi-- the man with the chess pieces in his lungs -- and myself, as I was then named in that clue. He is... he loves the both of us very much, you see.

[runs a hand through his hair, frustrated]

Honestly-- dealing with Hatter is a terrible idea, and Hatter loves to torment Raphael most of all. I've no idea what he though he would accomplish, except giving Hatter exactly what she wanted.

moextispicy
2011-08-29 02:03 am UTC
I'm sorry for your loss, and for the sufferings your loved one has borne. [for the record, sounds sincere.] But you didn't see him after he went, then.

watchmycannon
2011-08-29 02:05 am UTC
No. And what frustrates me most-- I've no idea what Raphael thought he would accomplish. It is not as though he could influence how the rest of the votes would fall, and his being taken... hurts me very much. If he meant to protect me-- I can't think that this was the best way.

--But my thanks.

moextispicy
2011-08-29 02:10 am UTC
I'm sorry, but I do have to ask this. What, in your estimation, is the likelihood of Hatter killing him and the wolves' choice being forced by that rather than by their normal process of chosing?

watchmycannon
2011-08-29 02:16 am UTC
...As equally likely as Hatter choosing her wolves deliberately rather than leaving it to chance. She is mercurial -- sometimes unendingly fair and sometimes playing by rules only she truly understands. Though she does, in my experience, enjoy not meddling directly where she can help it-- but will certainly give us enough rope to hang ourselves.
_________________________

For context, we were talking earlier about him suspecting me because he thought it possible that Hatter would choose a wolf for the purpose of maximum sadism.

Mi- I think overall he still strikes me as a sheep, but I can't eliminate the possibility.

[crisscrossing]

... Now that we know the wolves didn't choose Raphael--Jesus. I put my vote on David.

[moextispicy]

Mi- Thank you.

[just looks depressed and grumpy by now]

[crisscrossing]

I'm sorry you got caught up in all this.

[moextispicy]

It's not your fault. I'm sorry you got caught up in it too.