CFUW 137 - Parker

[moextispicy]

I figure now's a good time to talk in private, since I'm relatively sure you're a sheep.

Comments

[forthehoard]

'Sup.

[moextispicy]

Necoco's probably the wolf, and I don't anticipate too much of a problem getting him out. Sanosuke voted out both times when we could have gotten a wolf, and just seems more sheeplike.

Honestly, I'm more worried about the next round. We've got a one out of four chance. Who do you think the wolf most likely is?

[forthehoard]

No clue. It's either Ankh and we got the wolf in your round, or it's Lambda and the wolf is Rachel, right? Or you, I guess.

[moextispicy]

Mm-hmm. My gut feeling is that it's Ankh, because his voting record's slightly worse. He's the one who voted for Sanosuke at the last minute in suspicion, which is what gave Necoco a chance not to go up. He did the thing with the feathers, which makes most sense as a measure for a wolf who's already had one wolf go out, although obviously it's something that a sheep could do too. And he voted on Rachel and me in the first round, which makes sense as if Leo was a wolf.

Rachel's voting record's not really determinate, since I can see Lambda telling her to vote for her when she's the last vote if Lambda was the wolf, but I think what's inclining me against her is that she voted on Necoco early on. Assuming he's the wolf - and if Sanosuke were the wolf I have no idea whatsoever who the last wolf is - that's a bit risky, especially after it would've already backfired on her once. I don't think it's particularly likely that a newbie wolf would do that, especially if her only other wolf left in the game is also a newbie.

[forthehoard]

You know, that actually follows pretty well. I want to keep an eye on things but really, what sheep doesn't vote in any poll until the third day?

[moextispicy]

It would be pretty hard to believe that he's the sheep at this point. [giggles] But you're right that it's not definite yet.

[forthehoard]

On the other hand, if you're a wolf and he's a wolf, this is a pretty good set up to get me to vote on sheep.

[moextispicy]

It would be. [shrugs] I'm a sheep, but I don't have a particularly strong argument for it. My voting record doesn't particularly clear me, because then I'd've voted to save the other wolf in round two, and if I'd voted on Necoco instead of Jan in suspicion, he'd've gone up.

Or wait, did you mean if Sanosuke's a wolf?

[forthehoard]

...Yeah. Sorry. Kind of dropping the ball a lot on this one. If I'd been paying closer attention to how the voting was going in suspicion, this wouldn't be an issue.

[moextispicy]

[giggles] No, it was at least as much my misreading. [shrugs] I admit part of my rationale in going for Necoco is because if Sanosuke is the wolf, the patterns I'm seeing in the voting are so weak that I'd have no idea if who the last wolf is. It lowers Ankh's suspicion and raises yours and Rachel's. It's possible that he's the wolf, and I do encourage you to interrogate him as much as possible to give us more material to go off of. I just find it less likely and less useful at the moment.

[forthehoard]

It makes sense. Anyway, I think you're on the right path so I guess we'll just follow through with it.

I think it's especially weird that everyone was okay with ousting Leo for not being around, but there wasn't much commentary on Necoco.

[moextispicy]

I told him to vote a couple times, too. [pouts, and shrugs] But Jan wasn't much better, considering he changed his vote based off the source of shiny things, and I leaned into finding him slightly more suspicious just because I wondered who prodded him to vote the first time. If Ankh and Necoco are the two wolves, then the only people who voted on Sanosuke in the suspicion poll are the two wolves.