Furude Rika (![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png)
moextispicy) wrote2012-02-12 08:28 pm
moextispicy) wrote2012-02-12 08:28 pmCFUW 136 Adam
Now seems like a good time for a private post. And you also have access to this, just so you know.
moextispicy) wrote2012-02-12 08:28 pm
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There are two potential wolves we could have gotten: Takeru & Joe or Sanosuke & Laguna. Let's follow the scenarios.
If Takeru and Joe:
Adam: Voted in both times. Probably wolf.
Lambda: Voted out both times. Probably sheep.
Lincoln & Klavier: Voted out both times. Probably sheep.
Rika: Obviously sheep, since I'm in the same clue.
Boyue & Satoshi: Obviously sheep, since they're in the same clue.
Tiffany & Nita: Voted in when they voted. Probably wolves.
Wolves T&J: Takeru & Joe, Adam, and Tiffany & Nita.
If Sanosuke & Laguna:
Adam: Obviously sheep, since they're in the same clue.
Lambda: Either, but leaning sheep. She voted for someone else when they had more votes, and was prompt and clear about changing her vote when they went up.
Lincoln & Klavier: Obviously sheep, because they're in the same clue as them.
Rika: Didn't vote. Could be either.
Boyue & Satoshi: Second to last ones to vote in ousting. Late votes in these kind of wolf dog piles are really really suspicious to me, and Sanosuke & Laguna's vote was the key to them not going up in the first round. Probably wolves.
Tiffany & Nita: Last ones to vote in ousting, and didn't vote in suspicion. Probably wolves who didn't want to vote their buddy out, and in suspicion, didn't want to make themselves look more suspicious by voting.
Wolves S&L: Sanosuke & Laguna, Satoshi & Boyue, Tiffany & Nita.
If you look at Tiffany and Nita in light of assuming that Sanosuke & Laguna are wolves, you get the rather interesting result that they failed to vote in the first suspicion round when Boyue & Satoshi are up. I can't say I've played with Nita before, but I have played with Tiffany, and as a sheep she really prefers to even up the vote. The fact that she didn't had me suspecting her from the very first round, especially with the way she was voting only when it didn't really matter.
The other reasons I've been figuring Wolves S&L is, well, their arguments have been making no sense. This is the one that particularly struck me as wolves trying to derail the sheep - eating people who play a lot is the most basic wolf tactic - it didn't need multiple conversations about it. I was more convinced of Boyue & Satoshi than I was Sanosuke & Laguna the second round, honestly, although Laguna's objection to Accelerator putting up the vote totals was strange enough to be suspicious.
Tiffany and Nita are trickier, just because they haven't been voting much, and their conversation was kept on innocuousness the entire time. I was leaning towards them anyway, but I've played with Tiffany. She's usually not this obtuse. If she's playing that dumb, there's a reason. Nita's playing better, but she suspects the one team who is least likely to be wolves by my vote counts.
Lambda, on the other hand, has been much more consistent. She voted to protect me in the first round, voted for the person who was by my lights second most suspicious in the second suspicion round, but was pretty clear that she didn't really suspect him and voted on the one who was most suspicious promptly. It could have been a coverup, but her actions are still less suspicious then Tiffany and Nita's. She derailed into one mistake, but in general her derailings have been much less potentially harmful than Tiffany and Nita's and Boyue and Satoshi's? If I listened to them, we'd still be completely lost. They aren't willing to have an opinion on whether it's the second or first round, make any logical conclusions out of that, and they were basically throwing chaos into the last round with the post opening and accusations of bullying the wolves into voting with sheep and what all. And their potential logic as to why it was bad made no sense to me. Lambda's been happy to move onto the second most probable scenario when the first one fails throughout the game, and doesn't wallow in confusion. For the record, the people Crow was speaking to as far as I know were: me, Lambda & Tatsuya, and Lincoln & Klavier. And Boyue & Satoshi, of course.
So, after all that, I guess my question to you is who do you think the wolves are?
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I still think we're right about Tiffany and Nita. Their lack of a voting record is what made me suspicious in the first place, and that point still stands. As for the other wolf, well . . . I did vote for Satoshi and Boyue during the first suspicion poll. I think we have a better chance of finding a wolf if we put up round one again. Not that I don't have personal reasons for believing that, but I know I'm not a wolf and I don't think Klavier's team are wolves, either.
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I do agree with the rest of your conclusions, though. Are you fine with going for the third clue tonight and getting Tiffany and Nita out then?
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