Just in case I get eaten tonight, I want to leave this message with at least one safe sheep.
Jack says that it would be stupid for a wolf to vote on another, and doesn't seem to realize that it's equally suspicious for all the votes to pile up on someone like that that early, since wolves are the only ones who can move as a block early in the game. This means several things to me, as I am assuming that Jack is the wolf: 1. Tendou was the wolf, and the vote pile-up was an attempt to protect him by wolves who didn't think it through. It's what I was assuming anyway, but this moves it to near certainty for me. 2. The remaining wolf is probably equally inexperienced, if they didn't notice the potential problems with too many people voting for someone early on, and therefore the remaining wolf is likely to be among the people who haven't played much before. 3. If the wolves voted for Conrad because they didn't want to throw a wolf to the sheep the first night, that means they're highly likely to be among the people voting for Conrad, the first night. They are: Raphael (confirmed sheep), Elena (confirmed sheep), Ankh, Accelerator, Ash, and Jack (wolf, in my opinion).
This means that the three people who are most likely to be wolves are Accelerator, Ash, and Ankh. I would eliminate Accelerator as an option, because I believe he's played a fair amount before. I believe Ash plays fairly regularly, too, although I'm not as certain, and I don't remember seeing Ankh around. This means that the remaining wolf is most likely Ankh, with Ash as the second most likely possibility and Accelerator not impossible.
So basically, of the people left in the game, I list these in order of likelihood of their being a wolf:
00 - Hanna, Shura 1 - David 2 - Accelerator 3 - Ash 4 - Ankh 5 - Jack
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Jack says that it would be stupid for a wolf to vote on another, and doesn't seem to realize that it's equally suspicious for all the votes to pile up on someone like that that early, since wolves are the only ones who can move as a block early in the game. This means several things to me, as I am assuming that Jack is the wolf:
1. Tendou was the wolf, and the vote pile-up was an attempt to protect him by wolves who didn't think it through. It's what I was assuming anyway, but this moves it to near certainty for me.
2. The remaining wolf is probably equally inexperienced, if they didn't notice the potential problems with too many people voting for someone early on, and therefore the remaining wolf is likely to be among the people who haven't played much before.
3. If the wolves voted for Conrad because they didn't want to throw a wolf to the sheep the first night, that means they're highly likely to be among the people voting for Conrad, the first night. They are: Raphael (confirmed sheep), Elena (confirmed sheep), Ankh, Accelerator, Ash, and Jack (wolf, in my opinion).
This means that the three people who are most likely to be wolves are Accelerator, Ash, and Ankh. I would eliminate Accelerator as an option, because I believe he's played a fair amount before. I believe Ash plays fairly regularly, too, although I'm not as certain, and I don't remember seeing Ankh around. This means that the remaining wolf is most likely Ankh, with Ash as the second most likely possibility and Accelerator not impossible.
So basically, of the people left in the game, I list these in order of likelihood of their being a wolf:
00 - Hanna, Shura
1 - David
2 - Accelerator
3 - Ash
4 - Ankh
5 - Jack